🌍 How Could $1M Happen?

1. Gold-Level Market Cap 🪙

To hit $1 million, Bitcoin would need a market capitalization of $21 trillion—more than gold's current value. For that to happen, institutional allocation would need to scale WAY beyond where it is today. - Cointelegraph

2. Expert Predictions & Model Scenarios
   •   Fiona project a mid–2035 target (~$1.02M) based on surveys of institutional insiders and wealth managers.
   •   Some analysts, including Bitwise, argue Bitcoin could reach that mark by 2029, citing tightening supply and continued adoption.
   •   Arthur Hayes believes that by 2028, Bitcoin could explode to $1 million if the macro and policy line up.
   •   A separate supply-demand equilibrium model from CryptoSlate sees $1M by January 2027 if adoption and liquidity grow fast enough.
   •   Even Robert Kiyosaki sees Bitcoin hitting $1M by 2035 to defend against U.S. debt inflation.

3. How Would It Get There?

Driver	What It Means
Institution & Govt Flows	From treasury allocation to ETF assets moving billions
Scarcity & Halving Cycle	Supply cuts expose Bitcoin to new price floors
Global Adoption & Real Usage	War, inflation, tech adoption driving retail out of fiat
Regulation & Clarity	U.S./EU policies reducing uncertainty and improving trust

⚠️ Risks & Realism Check
   •   Even Craziest projections assign only ~10% probability for $1M by 2025—temporal mismatch remains a big constraint.
   •   Critics argue the stock-to-flow model underpinning many of these estimates is statistically fragile.
   •   To hit $1M, Bitcoin absorption would require massive capital rotation from equity, bonds, and gold, something most portfolios can't sustain.
   •   Predictions beyond 2029 point to moderate doubled-digit annual returns—not overnight riches.

🧠 How to Use This Thread
   •   Do you buy the $1M thesis, ignore it, or fall somewhere in between?
   •   What timeline makes sense to you?
   •   Have you seen use cases or flows that support such growth—or does it still look like pie-in-the-sky?